The full article - https://tinyurl.com/rcu76fl
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israeli
political and military leaders have warned against the possibility of a major
military confrontation with Iran, which wants to deter Israel from disrupting
its attempts to build military bases in Syria and Iraq and to construct
factories in which Hezbollah can convert its huge arsenal of rockets into
accurate missiles. This threat is more acute in light of the American failure
to respond to recent Iranian provocations in the Gulf. Israel should adopt an
aggressive new strategic approach to meet this threat, in coordination with the
US and in consultation with Russia.
Military and strategic experts argue that an Iranian military
attack on Israel is just a matter of time. American strategic weakness, as
reflected in its failure to respond to a series of Iranian provocations in the
Gulf, could provide an opportunity for an Iranian attack. The main purpose of
such an attack would be to deter Israel from its relentless strikes on the
military infrastructure Iran is attempting to build in Syria and more recently
in Iraq.
Iran has attacked oil tankers and Saudi oil facilities and shot
down an expensive American intelligence drone over international waters. It is
building facilities to convert Hezbollah’s huge arsenal of rockets into more
accurate and more deadly weapons. It is trying to add a third military front
against Israel in Syria and Iraq (the other two are Lebanon and Gaza), and is
using the terror organization Islamic Jihad in Gaza to attack Israeli towns and
villages in order to sabotage the Egyptian effort to achieve calm there.
Iran is also systematically violating the 2015 nuclear agreement,
which was signed by European powers as well as the US.
On November 6, 2019, Iran began to fuel over 1,044 centrifuges
with uranium gas at the Fordow nuclear facility. The purpose is to enrich
uranium at 20%. For peaceful purposes, uranium only needs to be enriched at
3-5%, and indeed the nuclear deal allows Iran to enrich only up to 3.67%.
It is obvious that Iran would not attack Israel directly from its
own territory. It is much more likely to use its proxies in the region.
Fortunately, Iran lost some of the element of surprise against Israel as it
already used precision-guided cruise missiles against Saudi Arabia.
Israel is preparing defensive and offensive answers to the
prospect of an Iranian cruise missile and drone strike. An Israeli strategy
should include several key components. First it should reveal Iran’s plan. Then
it should threaten direct and massive retaliation and make clear that Lebanon,
Syria, Iraq, and Gaza will pay a heavy price if attacks on Israel originate on
their soil.
In the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Israel distinguished between
Lebanon and Hezbollah. This distinction did not really apply then, and it
certainly does not apply now. If Israel comes under attack from Lebanese
territory, it will attack all of Lebanon in response—the Lebanese army as well
as Hezbollah. The same is true for Syria. Israel is trying to persuade Syrian
president Basher Assad and Russia that if Israel comes under attack from Syria,
it is Assad who will pay the price and his regime will be endangered.
Israel should inform Russia of potential Israeli action after any
attack by Iran, especially from Syrian territory. Russia hasn’t been happy
about exchanges of fire between Israel and Iranian forces attempting to build a
base in Syria. Russia has not protested Israeli military actions in Syria and
is concerned about the survival of the Assad regime should an Iranian attack
originate from there.
Iran’s military leaders often threaten to annihilate Israel or at
least destroy Tel Aviv. In view of the growing probability of a direct military
confrontation between the two states, Israelis would do well to remember Elie
Wiesel’s words: “Better to believe the threats of our enemies than the promises
of our friends.”
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