How did Israel gain the intelligence information it
needed to discover and booby-trap Hezbollah's tunnel and what does that mean
for the future?
Dr. Mordechai Kedar, 05/12/18
This week, for the first time, Israel made public its discovery of
the tunnel constructed by Hezbollah and reaching into Israel's sovereign
territory. This brought to an end a long period during which a large number of
Israelis living in communities adjacent to the Lebanese border reported hearing
sounds of digging as well as feeling tremors in the walls of their homes.
Attack tunnels are intended to allow for significant numbers of
armed infantry bearing weapons, artillery and supplies, to traverse them within
a minimal time span, avoiding Israeli lookouts and thereby gaining the element
of surprise. An underground passage grants attackers protection from
Israeli bombs, while it also means that the war begins on the Israeli side of
the border, in the midst of areas populated by civilians. That fact allows for
sudden forays and kidnapping.
However, the discovery and neutralization of the tunnel that
Hezbollah dug into Israel's sovereign territory is a technological,
operational and intelligence network accomplishment, for additional reasons:
1. Hezbollah based its plans for future wars on these
tunnels. Nasrallah has not made a secret of his plans to take over the Galilee
in the next war, but because Hezbollah has no means of air transport, it cannot
land sufficient numbers of armed forces in Israeli territory, and the tunnels
were intended as the substitute for an airlift. By discovering the first
tunnel, Israel has eliminated the immediate use of this strategic method, but
the IDF believes there are additional tunnels.
2. The discovery of the tunnel has proven to the entire world that
Hezbollah is acting in flagrant violation of the Security Council Resolution
1701 which brought the 2006 Second Lebanon War to an end. This resolution
forbids Hezbollah any presence in southern Lebanon, but now it has become clear
that not only is the terrorist organization in that region, it is also
violating Israeli sovereignty. It is obvious once again that UNIFIL has neither
the ability nor the interest to carry out the mission it was given by the
Security Council and Israel has no reason to assume that the international
community will act to ensure its security. This violation of a
Security Council decision provides Israel with justification, vis a vis the
Israeli public and the world, to attack Hezbollah.
An underground passage grants attackers protection from
Israeli bombs, while it also means that the war begins on the Israeli side of
the border, in the midst of areas populated by civilians.
3, Israel has the technological ability to discover tunnels dug as
deep as 25 meters (27 yards) down into bedrock, a depth equal to the height of
an 8 storey building. And Israeli know-how does not end with the discovery of
the tunnel: despite the fact that the tunnel reaches only 40 meters (43 yards)
into Israel, Israel managed not only to discover it but to position both a
camera and explosive charge inside it without Hezbollah lookouts becoming aware
of any activity in the tunnel.
4. Hezbollah suspects that Israel succeeded in finding the tunnel
by means of intelligence activity, meaning that there is a "mole"
within its ranks, someone with access to its most secret information – the
location of its tunnels – who is on such a high level of collaboration with
Israel that he can provide it with the relevant information without being
exposed. IDF CoS Gadi Eizenkot said on Tuesday that Israel is in possession
of Hezbollah's tunnel plans.
In my opinion, from the minute the tunnel's discovery was made
public, internal Hezbollah security forces are working feverishly to discover
who the collaborator is. People are being interrogated, an insulting experience
in itself that does not make for a pleasant atmosphere. Tension is at a high
between members of the organization who had information about the tunnel, as
each and every one of them automatically is suspected of working with Israel.
Fearing that anyone can be the "mole", people are refraining from
sharing information with one another.
This situation is affecting the organization's functioning and
opens up the possibility that the innocent will find themselves accused. Those
falsely accused will not continue as if nothing untoward has happened
after they have been suspected of disloyalty, an unforgivable insult to their
dedication. No organization can function in a situation of this kind,
especially in a case where the organization's entire strategy has to be altered
due to fears that Israel has found other tunnels and booby-trapped them as it
did the first.
5. Up until Wednesday morning, the time these lines were written,
there has been no reaction from Hezbollah. In my opinion, the organization is
in a state of utter disarray, with Hassan Nasrallah expected to
explain how this debacle occurred. The Iranians are furious because of
Nasrallah's failure to adequately develop the tunnel strategy and because of
the suspicion that there is a Hezbollah member passing on information to
Israel.
6. Hezbollahs' "Radwan" commando unit is the attack
force which was to traverse the tunnels, enter the Galilee and conquer Israeli
settlements there. Now that the tunnel has been found and booby-trapped by the
IDF, both officers and fighters in the "Radwan" unit are afraid that
every tunnel they enter is a death trap – not exactly adding to their
motivation.
7. The discovery of the tunnel will cause Hezbollah to concentrate
on developing its rocket arsenal and especially on honing its ability to
pinpoint targets in Israel.
8. The tunnel project cost Hezbollah many millions of dollars, and
now all that investment has gone to waste. Hassan Nasrallah is going to have to
explain the financial aspect of this failure as well.
9. Despite all this, Israel would be wise not to think that the
discovery of the tunnels is a knock-out blow to Hezbollah. That
terror organization knows how to overcome difficulties and adapt itself
and its operations to changing circumstances. While it is true that the
discovery of the tunnel is an impressive achievement, technologically and
intelligence-wise, it is not enough to defeat Hezbollah and convince the
organization that there is no point in continuing to fight Israel. Hezbollah
will remain Israel's implacable and bitter enemy from an ideological
standpoint, and more immediately, because it is the long arm of the Iranian
Islamic Republic which has sworn to destroy Israel.