JPost, By Isi Lebler 28-11-2017
For the full article go to https://tinyurl.com/y9sed39r
The
volatility of political activity in the Middle East region is dizzying.
The Syrian civil war is
almost at an end. President Basher Assad remains in power and Iran and its
surrogate Hezbollah have emerged as the clear victors.
Disconcertingly, both the Americans
and the Russians have apparently reached an agreement over Syria that would
enable Hezbollah and Iranian ground forces to remain – effectively threatening
Israel’s northern borders. In providing legitimacy for the Iranians to remain
in Syria, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave assurances that Israel’s
security would not be threatened. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has
publicly stated that this is unacceptable and that, if necessary, Israel would
take military steps to keep the Iranians at bay. This will require a balancing
act because Netanyahu does not wish to jeopardize his good relationship with
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, who hitherto ignored Israel’s security
concerns to forestall Hezbollah in southern Syria.
The tension is further
compounded by Iran’s repeated threats to wipe Israel off the face of the earth.
This was exacerbated by the upheavals in Hezbollah-dominated Lebanon with Prime
Minister Saad Hariri announcing his resignation while in Saudi Arabia, alleging
that he was fearful of being assassinated – and a week later retracting it on
his return to Lebanon. At the same time, President Michel Aoun alerted the
Lebanese army to an imminent attack by Israel.
Alongside this, Israel is
developing a common front with the Saudis where newly entrenched Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman describes Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as
the new Hitler. IDF Chief-of-Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot stated in an
interview with a Saudinewspaper that Israel is willing to share intelligence
about Iran with Saudi Arabia. In turn, two Saudi former senior ministers
visited a Paris synagogue – an unprecedented occurrence and an important
signal.
Yet without detracting from
the benefits, this essentially covert alliance between the moderate Sunnis and
Israel is based on expediency and cannot necessarily be regarded as a long-term
situation.
The Saudis remain on record
insisting that they have no relationship with the Israelis. While downplaying
the Israeli issue, they are still exerting a major influence on U.S. President
Donald Trump in relation to Jerusalem and the settlements and urging him to
revisit their original plan which would not meet Israel’s security
requirements. But it is impossible to distinguish between fact and fantasy in
conflicting media reports.
Relations with Egypt based on
collaborating against ISIS forces in the Sinai Peninsula and the personal
relationship with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi are excellent but
the media and the mosques continue their traditional anti-Semitic incitement.
As to the Palestinian
Authority, the Fatah-Hamas unity government has not lessened Hamas’ obsession
with obliterating Israel and their determination to retain military control of
Gaza.
The duplicitous ailing
President Mahmoud Abbas continues his anti-Israel incitement but maintains
military coordination with Israel, which effectively protects him from a Hamas
takeover. He has shown no sign of willingness to make any concessions and
brazenly continues paying huge stipends to terrorist prisoners – now including
Hamas members – and their families, despite being warned by the Americans to
desist from this barbarous practice of encouraging murder.
On the international scene,
the European Union is now in the process of orchestrating a boycott of Israeli
goods produced over the Green Line – an unprecedented step reflecting the bias
and double standards continuously applied to Israel.
However, the determining
factor in relation to international diplomacy undoubtedly rests with the Americans.
Public opinion and Congress are pro-Israel and, paradoxically, Christian
evangelicals are more supportive of Israel than most Jews.
But there are so many
contradictory signals concerning Trump’s intentions and given his penchant for
unpredictability, one can only very tentatively guess what they are.
He failed to fulfill his
promise to move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and has taken no real punitive
action in response to the defiance of Abbas to his demands that he cease paying
lucrative state pensions to terrorists and their kin. In a sense, Trump has
extended President Barack Obama’s policy of talking to both parties and
ignoring Palestinian intransigency. The U.S. Consulate in Jerusalem continues
to act as though its role was to represent the interests of the Palestinians
over the Green Line.
Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson announced that he would close the PLO office in Washington if Abbas
initiated war crimes proceedings against Israel at the International Criminal
Court and refused to enter serious negotiations with the Israelis. The
Palestinians rejected these proposals and threatened to break off relations
with the Americans if this was implemented. In response, the U.S. almost
immediately backtracked.
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