Iran’s dramatic
announcement that it no longer intends to honor its commitments under the 2015
nuclear deal with world powers could soon revive discussions in Israel over a
possible military strike on Iranian targets.
While Israel has
kept a low profile since the US killed top Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani last
Friday, it will be difficult to remain on the sidelines if Iran follows through
on its pledge to step away from the nuclear accord. Israel, a fierce critic of
the agreement, accuses Iran of trying to develop a nuclear weapon and has
repeatedly said it will not allow that to happen, even if that requires a risky
military strike.
Israel is widely
believed to possess its own arsenal of nuclear warheads, but neither confirms
nor denies it.
The US-led nuclear
deal, which restricted Iran’s atomic activities in exchange for relief from
sanctions, put any talk of Israeli military action into deep freeze. But that
all changed Sunday when Iran, protesting Soleimani’s killing, said it would no
longer honor the limits on uranium enrichment and other nuclear research
spelled out in the deal.
Iran denies it is seeking
a nuclear bomb and says its activities are for peaceful purposes only.
Israeli officials
had no immediate response to the Iranian announcement, although last month,
with the nuclear accord already unraveling, Foreign Minister Israel Katz said
that Israel remained ready to take military
action as a “last resort” to prevent Iran from developing an
atomic bomb.
Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu was reportedly meeting with his inner security cabinet on
Monday to discuss the latest developments.
Yoel Guzansky, an
analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank,
said the Iranian announcement puts the region in a delicate moment.
On one hand, he
noted that Iran is only talking about its intention to abandon the deal and has
not taken any action. “They’re still cautious,” said Guzansky, who is a former
adviser on Iranian affairs in the prime minister’s office.
On the other hand,
he said that a failure by the US and other world powers to spell out their “red
lines” risks encouraging Iran to press forward and potentially put it on a
collision course with Israel.
“Where is the US?
Where are the Chinese, the Russians, the Europeans? Their voices are not being
heard,” he said. Without spelling out their limits, he said Iran could move
“very close, much closer to a bomb” in the coming year.
Former prime
minister Ehud Barak has said that Israel came close to attacking Iran in the
early 2010s while he was defense minister, but ultimately backed down. Such a
move would risk not only the pilots and troops sent on a difficult mission in a
far-off land. It also could unleash a war that could quickly engulf the region.
Israel has long
considered Iran its greatest enemy, with suspicions about Iran’s nuclear
intentions at the top of its concerns.
But Israel has a
long list of other grievances against Iran. Among them are Iran’s support for
hostile proxy groups, especially the powerful Hezbollah terror group in
Lebanon, as well as Iran’s military presence in neighboring Syria.
In recent years,
Israel has struck a number of Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria, in many
cases to prevent the transfers of “game changing” weapons, such as
precision-guided missiles, to Hezbollah. Soleimani, the longtime commander of
Iran’s expeditionary Quds Force, was seen as the mastermind of these efforts
and topped Israel’s most-wanted list.
While Netanyahu put
out a brief statement praising US President Donald Trump for ordering the
airstrike, Israel has otherwise remained quiet, apparently in fear of
escalating an already volatile situation. With Iran vowing retaliation, Israel
has stepped up security at diplomatic installations overseas and its forces
remain on their standard high alert along the northern borders with Syria and
Lebanon.
Yet it is no secret
that Israel sees the death of its arch-enemy’s top general as a watershed
moment.
In Israeli eyes, the
airstrike restored much-needed US credibility, which many felt was eroded by
Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from the region and his lack of responses
to previous Iranian actions. Israeli defense strategy hinges heavily on close
military ties with the US.
“This was a big
strategic miracle. Suddenly, we are no longer on our own,” wrote Alex Fishman,
military commentator for the Yediot Ahronot daily.
For now, there seems
to be a consensus among analysts that the death of Soleimani dealt a tough
short-term blow, and the odds of retaliation against Israeli targets are low.
Iran’s main objective right now is to mete out revenge against the US, and it
has has little incentive to open another front, the thinking goes. But there
remains great uncertainty about whether there will be any long-term benefits.
“With all due
caution, it can be said that it appears that Iran will not initiate a direct
clash with Israel in the foreseeable future,” Giora Eiland, a former Israeli
national security adviser, wrote in the Yediot Ahronot daily Monday.
He said Iran is
“liable to decide on an aggressive course of action” if it meets one of three
goals: acquiring nuclear weapons, deepening its presence in Syria or succeeding
in transferring guided missiles to Hezbollah.
“The Israeli side is
making a great effort to prevent these exact three things, and with a fair
degree of success up until now,” he said.
Little is known about
Soleimani’s successor and longtime deputy, Esmail Ghaani. Iran also shows no
signs of moderating the policies that Soleimani carried out at the behest of
the country’s leaders in Tehran.
Raz Zimmt, a former
military intelligence officer now at the INSS think tank, said it may be
“wishful thinking” to expect Soleimani’s death to create great opportunities
for Israel.
“Yes, Iran is weaker
today than it used to be two or three days ago,” he said. “But that doesn’t
mean that Iran is going to change.”
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